§3.3 — Research
Senior Honors Thesis
A dual Math-Econ senior honors thesis on prediction market efficiency — whether observed market prices track the true underlying probability, and where and why they systematically don't.
in progress · manuscript not yet public
1. the question, schematically
illustrative only — the manuscript's own data and results aren't posted here yet.
the live counterpart
The Kalshi weather-market trading system elsewhere on this site is a live, running instance of exactly this question: it fits a fair-value model for NYC temperature contracts and trades the gap wherever the market price and the model's estimate of true probability disagree. It's the applied, tested counterpart to the thesis's academic question, not a separate project.
see it running live → Kalshi Weather Modelstatus
Draft is in progress and not yet posted publicly. Available on request — reach out on LinkedIn ↗.